Lottery Lesson

My daughter and husband left this afternoon to meet Nana and Papa in Orlando to spend five days at Disney.   More on that when I hear more.   For now, they've arrived with their luggage (which was in question upon departure). They were picked up by Nana and Papa to head to their hotel.   On the way home my son and I got into a conversation about, "winning a million dollars".

I can't remember how the conversation got started but as we were going to get Qdoba for dinner right beside a gas station, I decided to give him a lesson about lotteries and winning percentages.   For the majority of the ride, we talked about how the large lotteries incremented in value each week there was no winner—even though millions of people bought tickets.

How could it be that no one won, week after week, when so many people bought tickets?  I told him we'd get a lottery ticket, which cost only a dollar for a single entry.  I told him we had to get all six numbers correct to win the big prize.   Only these numbers weren't from one to ten, they were from one to seventy.   We talked about how, if he picked a single number, and I tried to guess it, how often I might guess it correctly on the first try?

Then, supposing I got that first number correct, I had to guess his second number—and get it right on the first try.   That had to happen six times in a row, with no second guesses, no mistakes.   The idea was one thing and I think he understood to some degree.   I gave him a different statistic, telling him if we bought five lottery tickets every week, we'd win the lottery once every one hundred twenty thousand years.  It's just that improbable.

And that's why it takes so many people, so many tickets, for someone to win.  So why buy a ticket then, I asked him?   Different people buy tickets for different reasons, I said.   It could be for fun or hope.   For whatever reason, lots of tickets are sold and winners win huge sums of money.  I said his father liked to buy a ticket when the winning amount got to be really high and that when he was older he could choose if he wanted to buy tickets himself.

My son said if our ticket won, it was his money since he picked the numbers.   I was buying the ticket with my money, I said, and he wasn't legally old enough to buy a ticket, but if we won, the money would be the family's money and to be sure, he would benefit from it.   Only, it wasn't as much money as it seemed, I said

I talked to him about how the stated amount was a multi-year payout total, but if the winner wanted the money all at once, the amount was about half.   And then I said there was another large portion that went to the government for taxes.   But in the end, it was still a lot of money.

When I got the ticket, I also got several $1 scratch-off cards.  I gave him a coin and went in to get our dinner while he and the dog waited in the car and he worked on the tickets.   When we arrived home, we looked at the cards, and he saw how the largest payouts were much smaller than the big lottery one, and I explained how that meant there was a greater chance to win $10,000 on a scratch-off card.   I told him there was a chance we would win a few dollars, but it was quite probable we would win nothing.

In the end, we won nothing.   He asked if it was a waste of money?   I said if we needed that money for other things, it would be important to decide if we would take the chance on a lottery ticket where we could easily lose our money versus paying a bill or buying food.   In our case today, did he have fun, I asked?  He said he, did and I said then it was worth it so he could learn how lottery tickets worked.

He knows when the drawing is for the large lottery later this week.   I told him we'd look online to see if we won anything but to not get his hopes up too much, this was already multiple weeks in with no winner yet and regardless, our chances to win were very, very slim indeed.

The Big Boy Update:  My son wanted to watch something on television just before bed tonight.   I told him if he got ready for bed early and was willing to help me with the laundry while he watched, I was in agreement.  He agreed, got ready quickly, picked a show and started in on the laundry.  I was surprised how quickly he was turning clothes inside out and sorting them.  Just a few months ago he protested it was too difficult and acted as though he couldn't possibly figure out how to turn anything right side out.   Tonight, he worked swiftly and silently while he watched television.

The Tiny Girl Chronicles:  My daughter held on tightly to the dog before we drove off to take her to the airport.   She was in the back seat, her body draped over the dog in what looks like a stranglehold that the dog doesn't seem to mind in the slightest.   She said, "Matisse, I'm going to miss you so much."  She gave the dog another hug at the airport before getting out.   She didn't seem to be as torn up about leaving her brother me.   There is no love like the love of a dog.